Even if you are not a sports fan, you know NFL is the biggest and most popular sports event in town. All licensed and regulated sportsbooks in the US cover NFL and offer competitive odds for punters to bet on. As you may know, on May 11, the NFL regular season schedule was released, and from that, we have started calculating the NFL Strength of Schedule for all 32 teams.
Keep reading to find out all about NFL 2023 schedule and predictions.
NFL Betting Recap
Before I dive into the season predictions and schedule rankings, let me refresh your memory about NFL betting basics.
When it comes to NFL, you have several markets to bet on.
Each betting option comes with specific odds and is subject to change according to the betting actions. For the sake of this article, I will not cover NFL betting details, instead, I will review the most common betting options and a quick guide to reading each odds.
Moneylines, Point Spreads, and Totals(over/under) are the main betting options for NFL.
Let us see how each category works:
NFL Moneyline Bets
Moneyline is a way that American bookmakers list the odds. In fact, Moneyline describes payout odds relative to number 100.
Do not get confused, though. This does not mean you must bet $100. This is just an annotation for educational purposes. You are free to bet as much as you want- based on the sportsbook wagering limit.
When you place a Moneyline bet, you are simply betting on a team or a player to win with no handicap. In other words, you pick the winner, and if the team wins, your bet also wins.
Now, how do you read Moneyline odds?
Moneyline odds are always represented as a three -or more- digit number. Negative odds show you’re your profit will be lower than your bet stakes. On the other hand, Positive Moneyline odds mean you will have an equal or more profit than the amount of money you risk.
If you win, the sportsbook will return your original stake, plus the profit from the bet.
Suppose you place a $100 bet on the following Moneyline odds:
|TEAM||MONEYLINE||Description||Profit on a $100 bet|
|New England Patriots||+130||If you bet $100, you would win $230, which is your initial $100 bet plus a $130 profit.||$130|
|Miami Dolphins||-150||If you bet $100, you would win $166, which is your $100 stake plus a $66 profit.||$66|
NFL Spread Bets
Point spreads are used by bookmakers to create an even line between two mismatched teams. Point spreads are only used for bets between two teams like AFC or NFC teams.
A point spread bet is where your team can lose but your bet wins. In fact, this is just an adjustment applied to the final margin of win.
Look at this example:
|Dallas Cowboys||-7 (-110)|
|Houston Texans||+7 (-110)|
Here the negative sign represents the favorite, and a positive sign represents the underdog. But regardless of the side you take, the payout will be evaluated and adjusted based on the final margin of victory. In other words, It doesn’t matter who the winner is. For example, if you bet on the Cowboys, and they win by 10-points, your bet wins, and you will get a $100 for every$110 you have wagered.
There is a third possibility to this type of bet, which is a Push. Push is a fancy way of saying Tie!
Suppose you bet on the Cowboys, and they win by exactly 7-points. This situation is called a push. In this case, no bet wins or loses, and the punters will be refunded their stakes.
NFL Totals or Over/Under Bets
This bet is simply a prediction of the total score of the game. In other words, you should bet on whether the total score will be over a specific number or under that number. Below is an example of what a total bet looks like:
|Atlanta Falcons||O 49.5 (-110)|
|New York Jets||U 49.5 (-110)|
Here, similar to the point spread, we do not care who wins the game. The total score of the game matters. For instance, if you bet on the Falcons and they win the game by over 49.5 points, you win and will be paid $100 for every $110 wagered.
When To Place Your NFL Bets?
Once the NFL schedule is released, sportsbooks release the weekly NFL games lines. Bettors jump on the odds immediately. At this point, if there is a clear trend toward one side, sportsbooks start to adjust the lines and odds to even out the betting sides and make bets closer to a 50-50 proposition. They do this because this is more in their favor.
Sportsbooks keep changing the odds and lines until the kickoff. Although some contests will not move that much, others with heavy action will change. Remember, NFL wagering odds are moment-based. In other words, once placing a bet, you are wagering based on where the odds stand at that particular moment. Some bettors like to place their wagers early, while the more patient ones like to wait and see what happens throughout the match or week of the games.
There is no code saying when to place your bet. In fact, placing NFL bets depends on the punter’s preferences and knowledge of handicapping. However, placing early bets or late bets comes with specific pros and cons, as you can see in the table below:
|Immediately after lines are released||You place your wager based on the original odds without worrying about the market fluctuations. You should not worry because your bet terms are not subject to change following line movements.||Lines may move according to the betting volume or news, and you may lose better odds than what you have already placed your wager on.|
|Right before kickoff||The odds are based on the latest info and the overall game conditions.||The new odds after the line movement may be worst than when they opened.|
|In-play(live, during the game)||Odds depend on the flow of the game and are adjusted accordingly.||Odds change so fast and it requires constant engagement and lightspeed reactions.|
Alright, we have reviewed all the NFL betting basics.
Time to move on to the NFL predictions to see where to place your wagers.
NFL Schedule 2022 Rankings And Predictions
The schedule is set. We know Buffalo Bills are chosen to be the Super Bowl champ defender-Los Angeles Rams opponent for the Sep 08 kickoff game at Sofi Stadium. This is the first time since 2020 that the two teams are meeting.
Apparently, Buffalo Bills are a Super Bowl favorite with no present injured players and the league considers them as such. In Week 2, the Bills will face Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football at Highmark stadium. This will be a home game for the Bills and a road game for the Titans.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers will host Green Bay Packers in Week 3 and Kansas City Cheifs in Week 4. In Week 6, Kansas City hosts Buffalo in a rematch game that actually caused OT rules to change. A.J.Brown Old team-Tennessee Titans will visit his new team-Philadelphia Eagles, in Week 13. On Thanksgiving, the Bills visit the Lions in Detroit.
272 games are on the second season schedule. Then, NFL progresses to the third campaign with a 14-team making it to the playoff. So, we should expect more contests that will affect the postseason events.
Although we all know the identity of each team and the history of each team’s opponent, the actual schedule and sequencing of the games will definitely influence the projected win totals. For instance, multiple road games with cross-country trips (even international ones) can dramatically affect team performance and overall win probability in a given week(or weeks).
Historical data and 272 actually played regular-season games statistics are used to make the following win projections.
Buffalo Bills(AFC EAST CHAMPIONS):
- Win Total: Over 11.5 (-125)
- Make Playoffs: -600
- Win Division: -180
- Conference Win Odds: +360
- Super Bowl Win odds: +700
Kansas City Chiefs(AFC WEST CHAMPIONS):
- Win Total Points: Over 10.5 (-115)
- Playoffs Odds: -240
- Win Division: +160
- Win Conference: +500
- Win Super Bowl: +900
Baltimore Ravens(AFC NORTH CHAMPIONS):
- Win Total: under 9.5 (-110)
- Playoffs chance: -140
- Division win chance: +220
- Conference win chance: +1200
- Win Super Bowl: +2200
Denver Broncos(WILD CARD):
- Win Total: under 10.0 (-110)
- Playoffs chance: -170
- Division win odds: +250
- Conference win chance: +850
- Super Bowl win chance: +1600
Las Vegas Raiders:
- Win Total: Over 8.5 (+105)
- Playoffs chance: +190
- Division win odds: +675
- Conference win odds: +2500
- Super Bowl win chance: +5000
- Win Total: under 9.5 (-125)
- Make Playoffs: -130
- Win Division: +130
- Win Conference: +1500
- Win Super Bowl: +3000
NFL Win-Loss Predictions 2022
We are deep enough in the offseason, and this gives us a pretty good idea of what all 32 NFL teams’ final rosters will look like. However, so much will be going on and the playoff picture will change from the previous year. It always does! So, according to the roster changes-additions and subtractions, we can bring you our way too early win-loss predictions for some of the NFL clubs for the 2022 campaign.
Predicted record: 9–8
Strength of schedule: .543
You might be among those who really like to think that the Cardinals will build off an 11-win season. But the reality is that it is so difficult to trust this team after so many late-season collapses. Also, the Cardinals had a rather uninspiring offseason. For one, they found no replacement for Chandler Jones. Second, they did not do much to fix up the secondary. Third, DeAndre Hopkins is suspended. And last but not least, their brutal 2022 schedule.
Predicted Record: 5-12
Strength of schedule: .524
The Falcons are much worse on paper than the 2021 group that overachieved with seven wins last year. Marcus Mariota is a downgrade for Matt Ryan, and Calvin Ridley will not play this season. However, they at least will be in a prime position to take one of the top quarterbacks in the next year’s draft-Desmond Ridder.
Predicted Record: 5-12
Strength of Schedule: .471
Not sure if any team has had a worse offseason than the Bears! At least they have four winnable games in their division. Plus, the Bears get to play the relatively weak NFC East. So, that should be enough for them to avoid the league’s worst record in 2022.
Predicted Record: 11-6
Strength of Schedule: .536
The AFC North will be harder for the Bengals to win in 2022. But, Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are going to get better. Especially, now that the Bengals have an actual offensive line in place: they signed La’el Collins one of the best right tackles, Ted Carras the center, and Alex Cappa the right guard. Also, the arrival of versatile safety- Daxton Hill- will improve the defense more. So, we can expect Cinti to once again be in the running for the AFC Crown!
Predicted Record: 7-10
Strength of Schedule: .495
This prediction is based on the assumption that Deshaun Watson will be suspended for a lengthy period, 5 to 8 games at the very least. There is no way the Browns are getting through the AFC North with Baker Mayfield or Jacoby Brissett as quarterback during that stretch. To be honest, there is not enough talent for the Browns to be competitive without Watson.
Predicted record: 9-8
Strength of schedule: .462
It feels like the boys are doomed to disappoint! Losing Amari Cooper, Cedrick Wilson Jr., Randy Gregory, La’el Collins, and Connor Williams just might be toooo much to overcome! Factor in their difficult schedule to further believe that America’s team will regress considerably in 2022.
Predicted record: 10-7
Strength of schedule: .509
Both 2019 and 2021 Broncos teams won seven games with terrible play from their quarterback. But, now, they have a guy named Russell Wilson who leads a prolific offense: Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Javonte Williams, and Melvin Gordon. So, ladies and gentlemen, say hello to the franchise’s first winning season since 2016.
Team With Easiest And Toughest NFL Schedule
From the projected win totals, we can say that NY Giants have the easiest 2022 NFL season strength of schedule. The next easiest schedules are:
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Indianapolis Colts
- Chicago Bears
The hardest strength of the schedule is for poor Cheifs, and right after them comes LA Rams, LA Raiders, and Pittsburgh Steelers.
NFL Strength Schedule Ranking By Team
In the table below, schedule strengths and current betting lines are ranked from the easiest (#1) to the hardest (#32).
|Position||NFL Team||Projected Win Total||Current Betting Line|
|1||NY Giants||7.1||7.5 +130|
|2||Philadelphia Eagles||8.87||8.5 -150|
|3||Indianapolis Colts||9.8||9.5 -140|
|4||Chicago Bears||6.8||6.5 -140|
|5||Detroit Lions||6.25||6.5 +115|
|6||Washington Commanders||7.65||7.5 -125|
|7||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||11.5||11.5 -110|
|8||Cleveland Browns||10.0||10 -110|
|9||New Orleans Saints||8.2||8.5 +120|
|10||Dallas Cowboys||10.5||10.5 -110|
|11||Baltimore Ravens||9.65||9.5 -125|
|12||Jacksonville Jaguars||6.35||6.5 +105|
|13||San Francisco 49ers||9.8||9.5 -140|
|14||Carolina Panthers||5.6||5.5 -120|
|15||Green Bay Packers||10.85||10.5 -145|
|16||Minnesota Vikings||8.7||8.5 -130|
|17||Denver Broncos||10.1||10.5 +130|
|18||Buffalo Bills||11.65||11.5 -125|
|19||Miami Dolphins||8.7||8.5 -130|
|20||Los Angeles Chargers||10.2||10.5 +120|
|21||Tennessee Titans||9.4||9.5 +100|
|22||Seattle Seahawks||5.8||5.5 -140|
|23||Atlanta Falcons||4.45||4.5 -105|
|24||Arizona Cardinals||9.05||9.5 +135|
|25||New England Patriots||8.6||8.5 -120|
|26||Cincinnati Bengals||9.6||9.5 -120|
|27||New York Jets||5.85||5.5 -145|
|28||Houston Texans||4.45||4.5 -105|
|29||Pittsburgh Steelers||7.6||7.5 -120|
|30||Las Vegas Raiders||8.5||8.5 -110|
|31||Los Angeles Rams||10.4||10.5 +100|
|32||Kansas City Chiefs||10.55||10.5 -115|
NFL Playoffs Prediction 2022
The league’s top winners will qualify for the playoffs at the end of the NFL regular season.
The playoff format has seen a couple of changes throughout NFL history, but since the 2020 campaign, it has been the same.
The smartest NFL minds have predicted one side of the “playoffs, yes or no” bet. The results? Of course, it is pretty obvious to bet either side on certain teams, but as everyone knows in the NFL, there are surprises you cannot predict before the games are played. Here are a couple of one-side playoffs bets odds:
- Arizona Cardinals: Yes -130, No +110
- Atlanta Falcons: Yes +550, No -847
- Baltimore Ravens: Yes -130, No +105
- Buffalo Bills: Yes -500, No +350
- Carolina Panthers: Yes +480, No -699
- Chicago Bears: Yes +300, No -400
- Cincinnati Bengals: Yes -140, No +110
- Dallas Cowboys: Yes -300, No +230
- Denver Broncos: Yes -150, No +125
- Detroit Lions: Yes +400, No -599
The Best Sportsbooks To Bet On NFL
There are plenty of US-friendly gambling sites that offer NFL betting. However, I recommend the following sportsbooks because they are safe, regulated, offer the best odds, provide excellent customer support, offer generous bonuses, and fast payout. You can pick any of them and place your bets with confidence.
- Fanduel Sportsbook
To Sum It Up…
I hope you learned from this post. Our goal at nikmood is to help you make better decisions and have more fun while placing your wagers. Remember, all the predictions you find on this page or other resources are subject to change. Because we are talking about NFL and sports in general. This means there will be surprises on the corner. So, a wise sports bettor keeps track of data and stats plus everything that happens throughout the games to place more accurate bets.
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